Jeremy Lin stood out as a anticipation to me for several reasons. He acquaint able numbers in the statistics that accept historically been important for PG affairs to do able-bodied at. He was antecedent in the two statistics that best appearance NBA-level athleticism for a PG. There were no added audacious negatives in his game.
Finally, even admitting he played in a bottom appointment he accepted he could play with the big boys whenever he got the chance. In my apperception this fabricated him a abundant bet to become at atomic a circling approved with an alfresco attempt at stardom.
When evaluating a anticipation I attending at a few altered important stats for the position they play. History tells us that academy players who do able-bodied in these statistical categories are abundant added acceptable to become acknowledged NBA players. A anticipation who block too far beneath assertive numbers in any of these statistics becomes abundant added of a risk. If a anticipation is way aloft the barometer in two or added of these categories and at atomic boilerplate in the others, they’re abeyant All-Stars.
For point guards, the important statistics are credibility per 40 annual (P/40), assists per 40 annual (A/40), two-point field-goal percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio, steals per 40 annual (S/40), and accumulated rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 annual (RSB/40). Per-minute numbers are pace-adjusted to yield the capricious clip of NCAA aggregation offenses into account.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the important stats and why they matter:
Points per 40 Minutes
The ample majority NBA players were the top scorers on their academy team—especially a amateur like Lin, who played in a abate conference. A PG prospect’s P/40 should be at atomic 18.0 and finer higher. A amateur that array too infrequently is consistently a risk, behindhand of how acceptable his added stats look. Lin was at 20.2, which is calmly aloft the 18.0 benchmark.
Two-Point FG Percentage
This should be at atomic .500. The college the better. A two-point allotment over .500 shows an adeptness to account efficiently. Winning basketball is all about application backing calmly and befitting your adversary from accomplishing the same.
A top two-point allotment suggests NBA athleticism in a guard, because it shows an adeptness to account from the lane. Lin’s .598 is a mark abounding ability advanced and centermost affairs don’t hit. He was calmly the best a allotment of the 2010 PGs in this important statistic.
Assists per 40 Minutes
This should be at atomic 5.0, admitting I adopt a anticipation to be over 6.0. This is an breadth area Lin was on the low side, at 5.5. The almost low absolute is what led to the band in the aboriginal Hoopsanalyst article: “If he can get the casual affair down."
An Assist-to-Turnover Arrangement of 1.4 or Higher
While A/TO is an abracadabra and not a decidedly acceptable admeasurement of a PG’s bulk compared to added PGs, a low number—especially if it’s apprenticed by a top bulk of turnovers—is a actual bad assurance for a PG prospect.
Lin was aswell low here, at 1.43, but still acceptable abundant for a casual grade. Because it was apprenticed added by low assists than top turnovers, I didn’t accede a huge affair at the time. It is account acquainted that the weakest allotment of his bold in NY and the affair that could bake out his antecedent brilliant has been top turnovers.
Steals per 40 Minutes
This should top 1.3 and finer 2.0. Lin was acme a allotment of 2010 PG affairs at 3.0.
Combined Rebounds, Steals and Blocks per 40 Annual or RSB/40
I attending for at atomic 6.5. I’m acceleration up on steals, but I do that for a reason. By searching at alone steals I can annihilate players who column a top RSB/40 based on alone on rebounds and blocks. Such players are generally assiduously who aren’t quick abundant to play bouncer in the NBA.
By accumulation the three, it separates the stronger, added able-bodied players from players who are artlessly brawl hawks. A lot of steals are a acceptable affair on their own for a bouncer prospect. Any bouncer anticipation that aswell accumulates a ample bulk of blocks and rebounds is assuming the blazon of abilities commonly aloof for big men and this is addition assurance of NBA athleticism.
Lin was afresh acme in his chic actuality at 9.7. This and the top two-point allotment put him in the aggregation of some of the best PGs in contempo years at the aforementioned date in their careers.
There are added numbers to attending at also—things that wouldn’t be above negatives in and of themselves, like a low bulk in the added categories would be, but do accession a red banderole if there were abundant of them. A PG anticipation should be able to beating down a three-pointer consistently abundant that it has to be respected. I don’t accord this a lot of attention, because an alfresco attempt is simple abundant to develop.
But if a PG anticipation is beneath than a 30 percent ballista or rarely shoots from abaft the arc, it is account acquainted and should be advised something of a negative. Lin was at .341 as a chief and hit .400 in at atomic one of his antecedent seasons. This wasn’t a botheration for him.
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Another bulk to attending at is free-throw attempts. A acceptable PG anticipation knows how to get to the band for simple points. Lin was afresh one of the best in his chic actuality at 8.3 per 40 minutes.
The endure affair to be looked at in Lin’s case was that he acquaint these numbers in a bottom conference, which just isn’t as absorbing as if it were done in the ACC or Big East. What I looked at actuality was antecedent small-college PGs who auspiciously fabricated the alteration to the NBA—players like Terry Porter and Derek Fisher. Lin compared agreeably to a lot of of this accumulation statistically.
There was aswell the actuality that in three non-conference amateur adjoin Big East heavies Connecticut, Boston Academy and Georgetown, he acquaint numbers that in a lot of means exceeded his numbers adjoin bottom competition.
To be sure, there was a assertive bulk of afterlife complex in Lin’s abrupt stardom. The 2012 New York Knicks were the absolute aggregation at the absolute time. On a lot of teams an undrafted amateur like Lin would accept had to play his way into the circling alive up to a advantageous third bouncer afore accepting a adventitious to start, a lot of acceptable a year or two down the road. That would accept been his career aisle had he ashore at Golden State or Houston.
The Knicks were different. The projected starting PG was afflicted and the added options just weren’t working. The aggregation was disturbing badly, searching added like a action aggregation than the adversary that had been paid for and marketed to fans. The Knicks were so atrocious for a PG they were accommodating to try an undrafted, little-used backup.
The Knicks aswell had a coach, Mike D’Antoni, whose breach has consistently been acceptable for PGs. The actuality that Lin’s abrupt acceleration angry about what was searching like an animal division for the Knicks and the simple actuality that this all happened in New York instead of, say, Portland, added to the admeasurement of the story.
For Jeremy Lin, it’s abundant that he took advantage of a abundant situation. For Ed Weiland, it’s been a fun 15 minutes.
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